WSuccessful female voters have been the backbone of the Republican Party for decades — but polls show their support for the party may be slipping this November thanks to young white women moving left at breakneck speed. .
In the weeks following the 2016 presidential election, after Donald Trump stunned the world by defeating Hillary Clinton, the media He grabbed white women to explain his shocking victory. According to an analysis of valid voter records by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of white women voted for Trump, compared to 45 percent for Clinton.
Trump’s success with white women highlighted a long-standing truth: this group Voting Republican Over the past 72 years, white women in large numbers have voted for the Democratic candidate in only two presidential elections. – In 1964, when Lyndon Johnson won 44 states, and in 1996, when Bill Clinton ran a three-way race. Trump’s lead with white women even increased in 2020, when 53 percent supported him. In contrast, 95 percent of black women voted for Joe Biden in 2020, and 61 percent of Hispanic women voted for Joe Biden.
But since 2020, things have changed a bit—especially for women. The US Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade in 2022, making abortion rights a major election issue. Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee over Joe Biden, became the first woman of color to win a major party’s nomination for president. All of which begs the question: Will 2024 be the year that white women, who make up nearly 40 percent of the national electorate, finally join women of color in supporting Democrats?
Well, not necessarily. But the gap is very good It may shrink.
There are signs that young white women are breaking away from the GOP—a trend associated with continued change by all. Young women on the left
“In my research, young women of color and young white women are pretty evenly liberal and feminist,” said Melissa Deckman, CEO of the Public Religion Research Institute and author of the recent book Gen Z Politics: What the Youngest Voters Will Look Like. SHAPE OUR DEMOCRACY I think having Harris as the candidate now — as opposed to Biden — has really made them more eager to vote. “So I strongly suspect that young, white female voters will buck the long-term trend of white women generally voting Republican.”
Young women are increasingly queer, increasingly secular, and marrying later in life—all characteristics that tend toward liberalism and support for the Democratic Party. (People who identify as liberals are more likely to be Democrats, although the reverse is not necessarily true—not all Democrats are liberals.)
Between 2011 and 2024, liberal identification among white women increased by 6 percent, according to a Gallup analysis shared with the Guardian. This identity also increased by 6 percent among black women, but decreased by 2 percent among Hispanic women.
Gen Z is the most diverse generation of Americans yet, but Gallup’s research shows that doesn’t explain the shift of young women to the left. Between 2017 and 2024, 41 percent of white women between the ages of 18 and 29 were liberal—2 percent more than their peers.
Young women are also unusually involved in politics. Women have been voting longer than men, but in 2020, 60 percent of white women ages 18 to 29 voted — more than any other group of young voters, according to an analysis of AP VoteCast data by the Center for Information and Research. Learning and Civic Participation Fifty-five percent voted for Biden.
Trump’s victory in 2016 It may have something to do with these trends. Chloe was raised by Democratic-leaning Independents Trump’s election, Fowler said It was an important turning point in his political evolution. He was a sophomore in high school when Trump won. The next day, someone shouted gleefully in the hallway of his school, “Take it from the cat!”
“Things like that stuck with us,” he recalls Fowler, A few months later, her mother took her to the Women’s March in Omaha, Nebraska. “Honestly, that moment was very important to me – I was chanting with him and wearing pink cat-ear hats.”
Fowler is now the vice president of the Nebraska Young Democrats. This young man was 23 years old Angry phone banking in his home district — Nebraska’s second congressional district, which may ultimately decide whether Trump or Harris becomes president.
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“Why is this match so close?”
A September 19 News/SurveyMonkey poll recently found that white women Harris is favored over Trump by 42 percent to 40 percent, with a margin of error of 1 percentage point. Of course, the remaining 8% can make or break the election. The gender gap is wider: Compared to white men, white women prefer Harris by a 6-point margin.
A majority of black women support Harris.
Jane June, a political science professor at the University of Southern California, says what is often misconstrued as a “gender gap” between male and female voters is really a racial one. While women overall are likely to vote for Harris — a New York Times/Sienna poll in September found that 54 percent of women plan to vote for Harris, compared to 40 percent of men — white women will remain Republican in 2024. . If all of a sudden, white women were like, “Oh my god, I’m burning my bra and my Barbie shoes and my long nails and all the plastic spray I put on my body”—we’re not. Seeing that,” Jon said. “Why is this match so close? This is very close because these groups remain fairly consistent in their party allegiance.
A poll by Galvanize Action, an organization that seeks to mobilize moderate women — especially in the critical “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan — found the race deadlocked among moderate white women, who split 43 percent to 44. . The percentage in favor of the former president These women, whose galvanizing action does not ideologically define them as Democrats or Republicans, make up more than 5 million voters in these three states..
Trump has the upper hand on these women’s important economic and immigration issues, however Women polled by Galvanize Action trust Harris most on democracy and reproductive freedom.
“Even among women who say the economy or democracy is their number one issue, a good portion of those people say, ‘I’m going to vote for someone who doesn’t support abortion,'” said Jackie Payne, of Galvanize Action. Executive Director and Founder
Democrats are hoping the abortion-rights measures — which voters will decide in the battleground states of Arizona, Nevada and Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district — will boost turnout among their base. However, white women may in practice vote simultaneously Voting for pro-abortion legislation and Republicans. More than half of white women voted on Ohio’s 2023 abortion ballot initiative — but More than 60 percent of white women supported Republican Gov. Mike DeWine, who signed a six-week abortion ban in 2022, just months after Roe’s downfall.
“It’s going to be all about participation. It’s going to be a very, very close election,Debbie said Walsh, Director of the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers. The Democratic Party is counting on women. They are especially counting on black women to be in the running. Will they have more energy?”
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