Here’s what the polls look like for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris four weeks before the election

Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight lead over Donald Trump in the 2024 race with four weeks until Election Day.

Polls and projections show that Harris is slightly ahead of the former president in the national average. If they translate into election results, Harris will win the popular vote in November.

Harris is also leading in swing states that could determine who wins the 2024 election. The entire election may hinge on who wins 19 Electoral College votes in a neck-and-neck race in Pennsylvania, a state where Harris currently leads by average.

The Democrats’ clearest path to victory in November would be winning the three blue-wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, as well as an Electoral College vote in Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district.

The pollster and pollster 538 currently has Harris just ahead of Trump in the three battleground states, with a sizable lead in Nebraska’s 2nd District, meaning the vice president will reach the 270-vote threshold needed in the Electoral College.

538 also has Harris in Nevada with four weeks to go. That gives the vice president a projected 276 electoral votes in November, barring any shock results elsewhere.

Trump’s most efficient path to victory would be North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania, which would give Republicans exactly 270 Electoral College votes. The former president could also defeat Harris by winning the Sun Belt swing states of Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, and nodding just one of Michigan or Wisconsin.

What does the national poll average look like?

According to 538, Harris is leading Trump by an average of 2.6 points (48.5% to 45.9%) with four weeks to go.

Pollster Nate Silver, who founded 538 and now uses a similar forecasting model, has Harris leading Trump by 3 points (49.2 percent to 46.2 percent).

The national average from RealClearPolitics, which favors Republican polling groups, has Harris leading by 2.1 points (48.9 percent to 46.8 percent).

Newsweek The two campaign teams have been contacted for comment via email.

Swing state voting

Pennsylvania

With Harris and Trump’s clearest path to victory including Pennsylvania, results in the Keystone State will be watched with even greater interest.

The poll shows Pennsylvania could still go either way, with 538 polls showing Harris by an average margin of 0.7 points (48 percent to 47.3 percent).

An OnMessage poll on behalf of the Sentinel Action Fund found Harris and Trump tied at 47 percent in Pennsylvania. The poll of 800 likely voters was conducted on September 28-29, and the results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

A Trafalgar Group poll of 1,090 likely Pennsylvania voters, conducted Sept. 26-29, found Trump leading Harris by 2 percentage points in the state (47 percent to 45 percent). The results have a positive or negative margin of error of 2.9%.

The Emerson College/RealClear PA poll, conducted Sept. 27-28, also found Harris and Trump tied at 48 percent in Pennsylvania. The poll sampled 1,000 likely voters, and results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.

Arizona

The polling average of 538 shows Trump ahead in Arizona by 1.5 points (48.2 percent to 46.7 percent).

A recent InsiderAdvantage poll of Sun Belt swing states shows Trump leading Harris by 1 percentage point in the Grand Canyon state (49 percent to 48 percent). The poll of 800 likely voters was conducted between September 29 and 30, and results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.

The Emerson College/RealClearWorld poll gave Trump a 3-point lead in Arizona (50 percent to 47 percent). The poll of 920 likely voters was conducted on September 27-28, and the results have a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points.

Georgia

Based on the 538, Trump is ahead in the Peach State by just over 1 point (48.3 percent to 47.2 percent).

An InsiderAdvantage Sun Belt poll of 800 likely voters shows Trump and Harris tied in Georgia at 48 percent with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University poll shows Trump leading Harris by 5 percentage points in the head-to-head race of 942 likely voters in Georgia, with a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points.

In the full presidential poll, including independent or third-party candidates, Trump widens his lead to 6 points (50% to 44%).

Michigan

According to 538 Stats, Harris is averaging a 1.7 point advantage in Michigan (48% to 46.3).

A Michigan state MIRS and News Source poll of 709 likely voters, conducted Sept. 30 by Mitchell Research & Communications, shows the former president with a 1-point lead over Harris in a straight race (49 percent to 48 percent). .

When the poll expands to a full presidential vote of eight candidates, Trump and Harris are tied at 47 percent. The results have a positive or negative margin of error of 3.6%.

The RMG Research poll of 789 likely Michigan voters, conducted Sept. 24-27, showed Harris with a 3-point lead over Trump (50 percent to 47 percent). The results have a margin of error of 3.5%.

North Carolina

Trump’s average lead in the Sun Belt state, crucial to his 2024 hopes, is 0.9 points in 538 calculations.

The InsiderAdvantage poll gave Trump a one-point lead (50 percent to 49 percent) in North Carolina, a Sun Belt state with 800 possible votes. The results have a positive or negative margin of error of 3.4%.

A The Washington Post A poll of 1,001 North Carolina likely voters found that 50 percent supported Trump, compared to 48 percent for Harris. The poll was conducted on September 25-29 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

Wisconsin

Based on 538 points average for Harris in the latest battleground state of Blue Wall Wisconsin is 1.6 points (48.4 percent to 46.8 percent).

A recent Marquette Law School poll found Harris leading Trump by 4 points (52 percent to 48 percent) among registered and likely voters in a head-to-head race.

In the full presidential candidate poll, which included independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (3 percent), Harris led Trump by 5 points among likely voters (49 percent to 44 percent).

The Marquette Law School poll was conducted Sept. 18-26 among 882 registered voters and 798 likely voters. The margin of error for both positive and negative results is 4.4 percent.

An ActiVote poll of 400 likely voters also showed Harris leading Trump by 4 points in Wisconsin (52 percent to 48).

The poll was conducted from August 29 to September 29, and results have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

Nevada

538 says Harris leads Trump by one point in Nevada (47.9 percent to 46.9).

A recent InsiderAdvantage poll shows Trump with a one-point lead (49 percent to 48 percent) in the Silver State. A poll of 800 likely voters has a margin of error of 3.5 percent.

A TIPP Insight poll of 1,044 registered voters in Nevada found Harris leading Trump by one point (50 percent to 49 percent). The poll was conducted on September 23-25 ​​with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percent.

The Decision Desk HQ/The Hill forecasting model says Harris has a 53 percent chance of winning the November 2024 election.

Past elections: drawing parallels

Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton were predicted to defeat Trump in the remaining four weeks of the 2016 and 2020 campaigns.

In the recent election, Biden defeated Trump both in the popular vote with 7 million votes and with 306 to 232 votes in the Electoral College.

While Clinton won the popular vote by three million in 2016, Trump pulled off a shocking 304-227 Electoral College victory.