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The odds at one presidential election betting platform swung heavily in former US President Donald Trump’s favor on Monday, much to the delight of the world’s richest man, Elon Musk, although the odd moves were far less common at other betting sites.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk, right, joins Donald Trump during a campaign rally on Saturday.
Key facts
Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris quickly widened Monday on blockchain-based Polymarket, which allows users to place unconventional bets on events such as the presidential election.
The poll was pricing in a 53.3 percent chance of a Trump win and a 46.1 percent chance of a Harris win shortly after 6 p.m. ET, up from 50.9 percent to 48.2 percent in Trump’s favor by 9:30 a.m. It split, pushing Trump’s money market odds to an all-time high. That’s the level since early August — shortly after Harris took over the Democratic nomination from President Joe Biden.
According to election betting odds, which compile odds of victory compiled by presidential election betting platforms including Polymarket, Trump overtook Harris as the betting markets’ favorite for the first time since Sept. 10.
But Polymarket’s rivals moved much less on Monday, with PredictI favoring Harris 51.4% to 48.6%, roughly flat over the past 24 hours, and Kalshi’s odds steady at 51% to 49%.
What we don’t know
What caused the swing in Trump’s favor in Polymarket? Some social media users noted that the movement occurred when an anonymous user named “Fredi9999” increased his bets on Trump to win to more than $4 million. Polymarket does not limit individual bettors like PredictIt ($850 limit) or Kalshi (used to be $25,000, but Kalshi bet more than $60,000 on Monday Trump) because it operates as an “overseas” book and It does not face similar federal regulations. So, it’s possible that Trump’s odds on the polymarket have changed because it was the result of one or a handful of big bettors buying in, rather than a material change in the election landscape.
tangent
Musk, who endorsed Trump in July and appeared at a rally with the Republican candidate on Saturday, shared several posts on his social networking platform X promoting the change to Polymarket. Musk shared a post linking the jump to his appearance at a Trump rally in Pennsylvania, writing that betting odds are “more accurate than polls because there’s real money involved” and reposting a screenshot showing Harris’ odds “collapsing” in The election emphasized.
Amazing fact
In a Monday evening post on his Silver Bulletin blog, statistician Nate Silver noted that the shift in Trump’s favor in the money market was “a bigger swing than it justifies,” noting that his electoral model showed Harris with 54.7% chance of winning. Silver, who also acts as an advisor to Polymarket, added that “multiple” doesn’t increase the slope, but cited several theories, such as happy traders, Musk’s hype and that Polymarket’s trading base may outnumber supporters. be trump
On the contrary
National polls show Harris slightly ahead of Trump, and FiveThirtyEight gives Harris a 55 percent chance of winning enough electoral votes.
Vital quote
Polymarket founder Shane Coplan told Forbes in July, “Polymarket essentially takes what is otherwise an Internet shouting match and turns it into a marketplace where the person who’s right wins.” to be
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Correction (10/7): This story has been updated to reflect Kalshi’s betting limit.
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